Americans voted for drastic change in November 2024. With a landslide victory even in states where historically Democrats upheld their stronghold, MAGA gained significant momentum. Why MAGA and not the Republicans? MAGA is a separate movement that took the Republican platform but could decide to run under the Democrat's flag in the next election (of course not without some adjustments) and would likely be as successful. The difference is a significant shift from previous political agendas.
Make sure to read the on-site experience part, at the end of the article to gain an insight into the mood of many Americans via first-hand experience, collected over the last couple of months and weeks.
Geopolitical Developments
Donald Trump made headlines prior to his inauguration by referring to Canada's sitting Prime Minister as “Governor”, signaling dissatisfaction with what he perceives as disproportionate Canadian benefits from U.S. relations. Following these developments (but certainly not solely caused by them), Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, with Pierre Poilievre emerging as the likely successor — a leader aligned with Trump's America First philosophy.
The Panama Canal became an early focus of the administration, with strong rhetoric about potentially reclaiming the strategic waterway. While military action remains improbable, the administration emphasizes serious concerns about current arrangements. U.S. vessels currently pay substantially higher transit fees than Chinese commercial ships, and Panama's authorization of Chinese state-owned facilities along the canal raises concerns about potential operational disruptions during conflicts - issues the administration claims violate the 1977 Carter-Torrijos Treaties that transferred canal control to Panama for a nominal $1 fee.
Arctic strategy features prominently in the administration's agenda, with renewed interest in acquiring Greenland. As diminishing polar ice opens new northern shipping routes, the U.S. seeks to expand Arctic influence. While outright purchase remains improbable given Denmark's economic stability compared to 19th-century Russia (when Alaska was sold), the administration is pursuing negotiations for strategic access or operational control of Greenland's territory.
Delivering on Libertarian Promises
The administration demonstrated its commitment to cryptocurrency advocates through decisive early actions. President Trump fulfilled a campaign pledge by granting clemency to Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, a move hailed by digital privacy advocates as symbolic of renewed libertarian priorities. Simultaneously, the Treasury Department unveiled official cryptocurrency initiatives that establish operational precedents protecting domestic blockchain enterprises from regulatory action. This strategic alignment between federal policy and private innovation creates unprecedented legal safeguards for U.S.-based crypto ventures, effectively neutralizing prosecution risks for compliant projects. Donald Trump and his family are also deeply involved in several own crypto projects, from DeFi to Memecoins. Any prosecution therefore is highly unlikely when the President is leading the way.
Financial Regulatory Overhaul
The administration's financial policy revolution commenced with Executive Order 14078, implementing an immediate freeze on all pending federal regulations until review by politically appointed agency heads. This sweeping mandate withdraws unpublished Obama-era regulations and postpones recently finalized rules for minimum 60-day review periods, critically impacting forthcoming CFPB restrictions on fintech partnerships and FDIC guidance for Buy Now, Pay Later lenders. Financial institutions now face regulatory limbo, particularly payment innovators like Apple Pay and Amazon Pay, with industry analysts warning of 6-9 month compliance uncertainty despite anticipated long-term deregulation. A significant deregulation, however, is expected and should be highly beneficial for the US consumer as monopolies can be torn down by new competition.
Complementing this regulatory pause, a government-wide hiring freeze has paralyzed oversight capacity at major financial agencies. SEC enforcement divisions currently operate at 60% staffing capacity according to Office of Personnel Management reports, while Federal Reserve compliance teams have suspended routine examinations of regional banks. Administration insiders confirm impending leadership changes at the CFPB, with plans to replace Director Rohit Chopra signaling fundamental shifts toward industry-friendly consumer protection policies.
Energy Sector Revolution
President Trump's Presidential Proclamation 10432 declared a national energy emergency, invoking Defense Production Act authorities to transform America's energy landscape. The proclamation mandates streamlined permitting for pipelines and drilling operations, reverses Biden-era restrictions on federal land leases, and terminates subsidies for offshore wind projects alongside electric vehicle manufacturing mandates. Energy Department projections estimate these measures could reduce domestic energy costs by 27% within 18 months while positioning the United States to surpass Russian gas exports by 2026. Funny enough, rumors are circulating that the Oil & Gas industry is already worried of too much supply, undercutting their margins. Which should be a great sign for energy buyers like Germany and consumers in the US.
Climate Policy Reversal
In a decisive environmental policy shift, the United States formally withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement on January 21, 2025 — marking its second exit under Trump's leadership. Commerce Department assessments indicate this move could save manufacturers $147 billion in compliance costs through 2030, though environmental analysts warn it may increase carbon emissions. The White House concurrently revoked 23 Biden-era environmental regulations, eliminating electric vehicle production requirements, clean power plant standards, and methane leakage. A move that will put the US on a way more competitive path than e.g., the EU.
Trade Policy Reshaping
While concrete trade measures remain under development, the administration has articulated an America First framework, prioritizing comprehensive trade agreement renegotiations. Key initiatives include overhauling WTO dispute resolution mechanisms, implementing revised tariff schedules targeting Chinese manufacturing subsidies, and establishing new reciprocity requirements for agricultural imports. Commerce Department transition documents reveal particular focus on reducing the $189 billion annual trade deficit with the European Union, suggesting impending tariff adjustments on automotive and aerospace imports.
Policy Conclusion
In detail, a lot will change over the next couple of months with the current administration, but the overall direction appears to be clear. Massive deregulation, AI, Crypto, M&A activity and a strong focus on sovereign strength, as well as energy production, will shape America. In contrast to Trump’s previous administration, key personnel like Scott Bessent, David Sachs, Elon Musk, JD Vance etc. are incredibly high-skilled people and will likely be remembered for smart rather than impulsive decisions. Other competitors like the EU or China are put under pressure to compete.
First Hand Insights
Over the past few months, Max (not for the first time) has lived in the United States and experienced first-hand the political climate on the East and West Coast. From Democratic strongholds in California to the Republican backcountry on a farm in Virginia, he has had many interesting conversations and realities of life. As a member of a family that has largely immigrated to the United States over the last two centuries and with family on both coasts, he is always in touch and has his finger on the pulse of the times. But during his most recent visit, hundreds of conversations crystallized large intersections of similar opinions. Regardless of whether the interlocutors were Republicans or Democrats, and regardless of income and personal wealth. Even if this is certainly — in part — anecdotal evidence, it was striking:
1. only in the major cities of Los Angeles and New York were some of the interlocutors still conciliatory towards the Biden administration. This is consistent with the election maps, according to which almost only large cities were dominated by blue.
2. almost every interviewee says that they are doing worse in their private life and, if available, in their own company than under the Trump administration, especially compared to the years before Covid.
3. trust in politics and the credibility of the media and politicians has plummeted.
4. the majority of people felt that the US needed a massive change of direction, both in domestic and foreign policy.
5. a large proportion felt that America has lost a lot of prestige and is taken less seriously on the international stage.
6. many Americans are concerned about developments in Europe, particularly in the UK and Germany. Crime, migration, and the economy are the main areas of concern for Americans. The majority of them would like to see a strong Europe. Especially in light of the fact, that Russia, China, and India are becoming stronger.
7. Many interviewees, especially Democrats, were disappointed with Biden's actions at the end of his term of office, particularly about the handling of pardons and numerous unresolved economic links involving his family.
8. even with great dislike for Donald Trump (DT) on a personal level, many interlocutors agreed that things could hardly be worse than under Biden.
9. many could not explain what the Democrats' election campaign strategy was and were particularly dissatisfied with the choice of vice-presidential candidate.
10. in fact, almost everyone agreed that DT's foreign policy was more likely to bring calm to international trouble spots than Biden's. They were also surprised by Kamala's few public appearances and her shyness towards interviews and direct debates in open exchanges. They have been missing a candidate with the charisma and rhetorical skills of Obama for well over a decade.
11. in retrospect, many were rather positively surprised by Trump's first term and are therefore not fearful of a second one.
As always, we hope to add some perspective on the conversation and decisions you may face. But be certain, America seems to have changed. Likely for the better.